The 2026 Oscars have something for everyone: vampires, car chases, show tunes, ping pong and Shakespeare. The frontrunners have emerged and we've locked in.
Here's what we think will win — and should — at the Academy Awards on Sunday night.
A best picture face-off: Sinners or One Battle After Another?
Sinners should win best picture … but One Battle After Another will take the prize.
Glen Weldon: I think One Battle is going to win because it is the traditional pick of the two frontrunners. It's filled with actors the Academy loves. You have to remember that best picture is chosen by ranked choice voting: a film needs to get over 50% of voters to win, and if that criteria is not met, they eliminate the lowest ranked film and redistribute those votes to the next choices until they hit that 50% mark.
In that environment, it's not enough for there to be a small base of very vocal supporters. You need everyone to kind of like your movie. And I suspect that there are voters — let's call them old school, very traditional Academy voters — who will not vibe with the horror elements of Sinners.
And there's a more meta reason here: At its heart, One Battle is satirizing right wing extremism. It's poking much gentler fun at left wing idealism and extremism. That is the kind of thing that a certain kind of Academy voter will vote for, and feel very good about themselves for doing it. I'm not equating One Battle with the Crashes and the Green Books of the world, but I'm just saying there is a kind of Oscar voter, a traditional film snob who dismisses genre stuff, who will think that voting for One Battle is a political act. I mean, if they think that, they should vote for Sinners, but they're going to vote for One Battle.
Aisha Harris: Yes to everything Glen said. But I think the shorter version is: it's time for Paul Thomas Anderson. Do I think it's time? No. But I do think a lot of Hollywood thinks it's time, because he has yet to win a best picture. He has yet to win best director. Paul Thomas Anderson has so much goodwill: he's a director's director, he is the Letterboxd king, all these things.
Sinners, as Glen said, is political in a different way. But there's a difference between the way Paul Thomas Anderson satirizes right wing extremism and the fact that Sinners ends in part with a Black character gunning down KKK members. And I think that that's a step too far for certain people.
I love Sinners so much, so that's what I think should win. It is such a stunning feat of artistry and clearly the work of someone — Ryan Coogler — who needed to get everything out there, because perhaps he thought maybe he might not ever be able to do something like this again, even though he is one of our most consistent filmmakers and he's done so many great blockbusters. But he just throws it all out there and leaves it on the floor.
Linda Holmes: This is sort of one of those years where I have a movie that I wish would win (Sinners) and I have a movie that I suspect is going to win (One Battle). I think the most interesting win that built momentum for Sinners was the best cast award at the Actor Awards, formerly known as the SAG Awards. That's a big body of voters, right? It does make sense that that is considered to be a precursor award to the Oscar best picture.
However, you know, the Producers Guild didn't choose Sinners, and the producers are also a big group. And the more sort of "old school" — heavy use of quotation marks – people who you envision, when you think about why the Oscars tend to be kind of a little bit stuck? It's more producers.
Sinners should win best picture, and it will.
Stephen Thompson: I'm erring on the side of optimism. At some point in this process, as I was watching or rewatching these films, I found myself breaking all ties in favor of Sinners. It has an extraordinary amount of momentum right now for a movie that came out very early in the year. And I see a lot of parallels between its Oscar campaign and the Oscar campaign of the movie Everything Everywhere All at Once several years ago: Both films came out in the first half of the year, which is unusual for Oscar movies. Both films made an enormous amount of money when they weren't necessarily expected to. Both of those films maintained awards buzz for the better part of a year. Both of those films contain largely non-white casts. Both of those films are outside of conventional Oscar historical drama / biopic genres. The last one that I'm going to mention is that they both received a greater-than-expected number of nominations, which suggests a pretty extreme breadth of support within the Academy.
I sat down with Sinners a few days ago and just reveled in how gorgeous it looks, how beautifully it's acted, how fun it is, how exciting it is. The musical centerpiece of this film is one of my favorite scenes in a movie in years. And if I have any strong rooting interest besides a general love of the movie, it's for cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw, whose work in this film is jaw dropping. Not only should Sinners win, I think it will win.
In a stacked best actor category, Timmy will probably win
Timothée Chalamet will win best actor … even if Michael B. Jordan deserves it.
Aisha: I'm going to put my money on Timmy for Marty Supreme, who I think is actually very well cast — as we've seen from his very, very chaotic campaign throughout this entire award season. I do think that he's probably rubbed some people a little bit the wrong way.
Of course, there's no scientific way to game this out. But I would love to see Michael B. Jordan win, because I do think that this is his best performance. This is based on 20-plus years of watching this guy grow up and grow into the man he is. And Ryan Coogler is quite literally the only film director who has known what to do with him as a performer. Just the fact that Jordan's playing not just twins, but one of those twins turns into a vampire. There's lots of layers. It's not quite three characters, but it's like two-and-a-half.
Glen: I mean, I could sit here and make the case for Wagner Moura, who holds the center of The Secret Agent, a film that could easily fly away in a hundred separate chunks. But what Jordan does in Sinners is expose the vulnerability in two characters who are each, in different ways, performing an utter lack of vulnerability. It's Jordan all the way.
Still, I think Timothée is going to win. I mean, to say he's giving a showier performance than a guy who's playing twins is saying something. But it is — it's a bigger performance, it's more in your face. It's the most acting. To Aisha's point, he's campaigning hard. There is this notion that Oscar doesn't like try-hards, and that is provably false. Try-hards win Oscars all the time. I think he's going to take it.
Linda: I think Timothée's juice has waned a bit. I think the persona that he took on in promoting this film has worn thin with people. His comments about how no one cares about ballet or opera — I think that is rude to say, and can make people feel like you're a pill. Do I think that's going to tip it? No, I don't.
I don't want to make it sound like boo hoo, Chalamet is going to win. I think he's really good in Marty Supreme. Coming out of the movie, I said that I wouldn't have a huge problem with it if he wins. But boy, Michael B. Jordan — I would love to see him win.
Michael B. Jordan should win best actor … and he will.
Stephen: First of all, this is such a strong field. But I think it is as much Michael B. Jordan's time as it is Timothée Chalamet's time. The Michael B. Jordan performance is plenty showy. He's playing twins and he's great at it and he gives them distinct personalities where you can tell them apart. I think people are exhausted by Timothée's performance, by this movie, and by not only this Oscar campaign, but last year's Timothée Chalamet Oscar campaign for A Complete Unknown. I think people are less fond of Marty Supreme than they are of Sinners, and I do think that's a factor. I'm going with Michael B. Jordan for not only will win, but should win.
Consensus: Jessie Buckley will probably win best actress
Jessie Buckley should win best actress … and she will.
Stephen: Now, I don't want to dismiss the rest of this field. I think there are other extremely strong performances here. As much as I never want to see If I Had legs, I'd Kick You ever again in my life, I think Rose Byrne is terrific in it. I think Kate Hudson is way better in Song Sung Blue than I could have expected. For one thing, she's just about the only person in that film who pulls off the accent. And I'm from Wisconsin. I always love Renate Reinsve and everything she does, and she's terrific in Sentimental Value. And, you know, and of course, Emma Stone — you never want to discount Emma Stone. But to me, Jessie Buckley runs away with this.
I think Jessie Buckley is one of those actors who is extremely committed in everything she does. She's willing to take things over the top, but does it extremely well. Agnes in Hamnet is a best acting performance. It is a most acting performance. She's given an extraordinary amount to work with here: you get deep emotion, deep pathos, but also kind of quiet "face and eyes" acting. She is the giant concrete beam holding up this film.
Rose Byrne should win … but Jessie Buckley will.
Linda: I think it's going to be Jessie Buckley, too. She's very well-liked; she's been in a lot of other things. Women Talking for one, and The Lost Daughter. Sometimes when people, including me, talk about very "Oscars-y" performances, which this is, it's easy to discount the fact that it is hard to do them really well. She's been on a great run of precursor awards and I think she will probably win.
As far as should win? My pick would be Rose Byrne. Rose Byrne is doing such interesting work in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You and really is the whole movie. I mean there are little bits of other people, including, by the way, Conan O'Brien, who's quite good and strange in this film, doing something very different from what I'm used to from him. But for the most part, she is the movie.
Glen: Same. I pick Rose Byrne. She's in every scene of that film. It's often a tight shot of her face. We watch her reacting for most of the film, and that's an example of the script and the performance lining up to make you feel empathy, if not sympathy, right? So you're experiencing what's going on in your gut and it's raw, it's visceral, and it's completely unforgettable, which is good because as other people have mentioned, I'm never going to see that damn movie again. But I don't need to because it's in there.
Still, Jessie Buckley has been putting in the work. She makes weird choices and she doesn't make Agnes's grief traditionally Oscar-baity, she makes it something spiky and difficult and real. And if this film works on you — it didn't for me, but if it works on you — it's because of those last 10 minutes or so. And for the people it worked for, it worked very very well.
Renate Reinsve should win … but Jessie Buckley will.
Aisha: I'm going with Renate Reinsve. I really appreciate the fact that her character both has to deal with her father, played by Stellan Skarsgård, coming back into her life, but also her struggle as a performer. There are some really great scenes of her having to act out being an actor. I find myself drawn to that sort of characterization and excavation of emotion and creative processes. I would love to see her win.
But also, if Jessie Buckley wins? She's really good. Her body of work is so impressive, and I am always looking forward to whatever she is in. I just keep going back to seeing Hamnet in the theater, in a packed house and literally everyone around me is bawling and sniffling, except for myself. That is where that power lies in getting people to vote for her … if you have a heart, and apparently I don't.
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