This story is part of a partnership between KERA and Grist, a nonprofit environmental media organization.
Flooding could cause nearly $2.3 billion in damage across western North Texas over the next 50 years, according to preliminary findings from the North Central Texas Council of Governments (NCTCOG).
The Integrated Transportation and Stormwater Infrastructure Study, launched in 2023, looks at the best ways to design growth across sectors to reduce flood damage and improve safety.
“By coordinating how we plan for development…. (we can) avoid passing along even greater costs to communities in the future,” said Susan Alvarez, NCTCOG director of environment and development.
The preliminary findings focus on western North Texas, including parts of Parker, Tarrant, Hood and Johnson counties. As this area grows, more open land is being replaced by impervious surfaces, like roads, sidewalks or parking lots. The study estimates developed surfaces will increase from 6.4% of the land in 2020 to 35.2% by 2070. This will lead to more runoff and less natural earth for precipitation to soak into the ground.
“If we develop those areas to the same density as Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington and all the cities in between, does our downstream watershed have capacity? And the easy answer is no,” said Alvarez.
At the same time, extreme precipitation is also expected to increase as more heat becomes trapped in the atmosphere due to man-made climate change.
The $2.3 billion damage estimate counts existing and future buildings, the contents inside those buildings, cars and displacement costs, such as temporary housing for residents who must leave their homes.
“What this study really looked at is: how can we incorporate draining and transportation planning from the very start? And how can we develop these upstream areas in a way where we’re not impacting our downstream neighbors?,” said Alvarez.
The study also suggests local policy options, such as keeping new buildings back from floodplains, requiring developers to check how projects affect downstream neighbors, and reducing paved surfaces.
The study has identified over 200 potential projects to reduce flooding and strengthen infrastructure. Recommendations include larger culverts and bridges, drainage built into roadway corridors, rain gardens and flood warning systems. Nine projects are currently being submitted for state funding consideration; these proposals are ready for immediate design and construction, while the others still need more analysis.
The final findings will include analysis for other areas like Denton and Wise counties. That’s expected to be completed by the end of this year.
Celeste Guajardo is the Climate, Energy and Environment reporter for KERA and Grist. Got a tip? Email her at cguajardo@kera.org.
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