Collin County’s political system had been a mirror of Ken Paxton’s political career.
He grew from a Bush-era Republican in the Texas House when he was first elected in 2002 to a national champion for President Donald Trump’s agenda as attorney general. Collin County became Trump country, backing the president and almost every other Republican on the ballot in 2024.
But by this year’s midterms, that changed. The county that built Paxton’s career voted for every statewide Democrat on the ballot. U.S. Senator-elect Talarico defeated Paxton in the U.S. Senate race with about 55% of the vote – the same margin of votes he got in Collin County.
That flip wasn’t out of the blue. There were fractures in Paxton’s wall of support long before last week’s vote. People in Collin County became increasingly uncomfortable with Paxton’s extramarital affairs and divisive rhetoric about the East Plano Islamic Center, a mosque in Plano known for being the only overnight warming center for the homeless in Collin County in the winter.
Paxton thrust Collin County into the national spotlight as attorney general. He and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott targeted the East Plano Islamic Center and it’s proposed Muslim-oriented housing development in unincorporated Collin County. Abbott and Paxton both launched several investigations into the project.
In Frisco, the city council heard hours of public testimony repeating false claims of H-1B visa fraud in the city’s Indian community and Sharia law at local mosques, prompting national headlines. Voters in Frisco overwhelmingly supported a mayoral candidate who denounced the anti-Muslim rhetoric that dominated his opponent’s campaign.
Many of Paxton’s controversies started in Collin County. He was indicted on securities fraud charges by a Collin County grand jury in 2015. All of the Republican statehouse members from Collin County voted to impeach the attorney general in 2023 over allegations of corruption. And his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in Collin County court “on biblical grounds” last year.
Paxton’s home base is very familiar with his sordid past, said Rep. Mihaela Plesa, a Democratic statehouse member from Plano.
“Collin County has had a front row seat to Ken Paxton’s corruption for a really long time,” Plesa said.
Paxton has managed to dodge accountability for his actions. He was acquitted of impeachment charges in the Texas senate and reached a plea deal with prosecutors who agreed to drop the securities fraud charges in 2024. And the Department of Justice declined to prosecute Paxton over corruption allegations.
Videos of Paxton with his alleged mistress, Tracy Duhon, circulated on social media this year. The divorce and extramarital affair may have been a tipping point for voters in Collin County, said Gary Cary, the president of the Collin County Conservative Republicans.
“Not only is this Ken Paxton territory, but I’ll tell you, even more so in the last couple years, it’s probably Angela Paxton territory,” Cary said.
Choosing Paxton may have been the ultimate downfall for Texas Republicans across the state and in Collin County. The Texas Attorney General ran on his legacy as a champion for Trump’s agenda, promising to continue that fight in the U.S. Senate.
Trump urged his supporters to vote as if he was on the ballot. But the president and his policies have become unpopular, even among his base. Prices have increased at the pump and the grocery store. Many voters blame the war and Iran and tariff hikes for the rise in prices, with 37% of Republicans saying they are dissatisfied with Trump’s handling of the economy in a recent NBC News poll. That dissatisfaction led to a blue wave across the country, including North Texas, where affordability was the top issue for many voters.
Internal division
Paxton defeated the incumbent, U.S. Senator John Cornyn, in a GOP runoff election after a last-minute endorsement from Trump. Cornyn didn’t endorse or lobby for Paxton after losing the nomination, instead criticizing Paxton’s missteps on the campaign trail.
The battle over the nomination split the Republican party, Cary said, who supported Cornyn in the primary runoff.
“I was concerned with this kind of outcome if Paxton was the candidate. I thought there was much more risk,” he said. “I think things would have been different with John Cornyn at the top of that ticket. And it’s possible Cornyn could have held the seat.”
But the blue wave across the country was strong enough, he said, having Cornyn at the top of the ticket might not have made much difference. The Collin County GOP, Cary said, needs to reflect on its failures to reach its community in the recent election.
Republicans in Collin County will also have to address internal division. Rep. Jeff Leach was one of the impeachment managers in the state Senate. He and Rep. Matt Shaheen, also from Collin County, both supported Cornyn in the primary runoff. They later endorsed Paxton after he received the nomination.
Trump’s support of his chosen candidate was often lukewarm during the campaign. He criticized how Paxton looks, dresses and sounds multiple times, including both nights of the Republican National Convention in Dallas in September. Paxton, the top Republican on the ballot in Texas, wasn’t featured prominently at the convention. He got less than 10 minutes to make his pitch hours before the president spoke. And Gov. Greg Abbott, Lieutenant Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz didn’t mention him once during their speeches.
Paxton remained loyal to Trump. He avoided blaming the president for the affordability crisis, instead pointing the finger at Democrats and President Joe Biden. And he campaigned on conservative social causes popular with GOP primary voters, frequently pointing to Talarico’s previous comments on transgender issues.
Catering to the small portion of the electorate that cast ballots in Republican primaries cost Paxton votes, said Parker Hevron, a political science professor at Texas Woman’s University.
“It showed in his performance on the campaign trail,” Hevron said. “He’s never really had to ask normal Texans for their vote.”
Growing pains
The GOP’s failings in the recent election go beyond Paxton, Plesa said. The party’s conservative social platform no longer resonates with voters, she said.
“People don’t think that these issues are why their groceries cost more, why their gas costs more, why their schools are shutting down,” Plesa said.
Affluent areas like Collin County, where the average household income is $121,600, aren’t immune to economic strain. A majority of voters struck down every county bond proposition on their ballots. The funds were earmarked to bolster infrastructure struggling to keep up with the increase in demand from the booming population.
Once a bedroom community that had more farmland than strip malls, Collin County has evolved into a collection of cities that are outpacing Dallas in terms of growth and economic development. Major corporations have moved their headquarters to Collin County, including AT&T and IBM, and sports franchises like the Dallas Stars and the Dallas Cowboys. Growing cities like Plano, Frisco and McKinney have high-end entertainment districts and fine dining, and a new commercial airport.
Homeowners in Collin County have seen their home values rise, leading to an increase in their property tax bills even when local governments maintained the same tax rate. This year, the county commissioners raised the property tax rate in over 30 years, citing growing pains on the roads, jail and other county services.
Residents in Collin County live under Republican rule – their county government, state government and national leaders are all Republican. With no Democrats in charge to blame, that total control had consequences for Republicans in the midterm elections, said Elizabeth Simas, a political science professor at the Bush School at Texas A&M.
“When you have all of the power and people are not happy with the way things are going, it’s going to be reflected in the vote,” Simas said.
Democrats now control almost every seat of power in Texas at the state level, with Republicans maintaining the majority in the state senate. In Collin County, voters elected the first Democratic county commissioner in decades. And County Judge Chris Hill, a republican, was reelected with less than 2,000 more votes than his Democratic opponent.
Hill has served on the Collin County commissioners’ court since he was elected county commissioner in 2012, two years before Paxton was first elected attorney general with about 66% of his home county’s vote.
Collin County has changed since then, Hevron said.
“The county that launched Ken Paxton’s career is very different than the Collin County that exists today,” he said.
Changing dynamics
Collin County’s population has shifted from mostly white to a younger, more educated and more diverse population. It’s not unusual to hear people talking in Spanish, Arabic, Chinese or another language in public. About a third of the county speaks a language other than English at home according to U.S. Census data.
Grocery stores like H Mart and Patel Brothers cater to the county’s Asian population, which makeup almost a quarter of the county’s nearly 1.3 million population. Cities like Plano, Frisco and McKinney have welcomed their Asian population, hosting Diwali celebrations and an international festival.
South Asians in Texas have seen an increase in hate, especially in Collin County, said Chanda Parbhoo, the executive director of the South Asian American Voter Empowerment of Texas who has lived in Plano for decades.
“We have seen an unprecedented amount of hate, especially in Collin County, which has been ground zero,” Parbhoo said. “We were making national headlines.”
In Frisco, people spent hours repeating baseless claims of H-1B visa fraud in Frisco’s Indian community at a city council meeting earlier this year after a Youtuber posted a viral video claiming to “expose Texas’ Indian invasion.” Some of them were residents, but many were from outside the county or state. Months later, the city council listened to hours of public testimony condemning the city’s Muslim residents.
Anti-Muslim rhetoric has been a focal point in Texas politics. A proposed Muslim-oriented housing community in Collin County formerly known as EPIC City has faced intense scrutiny from Texas officials. Top Republicans in the state, including Abbott and Paxton, have accused the development of implementing Sharia law and creating a no-go zone for non-Muslims, something the developer has repeatedly denied. So far, multiple state investigations of alleged wrongdoing have yet to produce any evidence.
Tensions over growing Frisco’s Muslim and South Asian populations were at the center of a mayoral race earlier this year. One of the candidates in the runoff ran on an anti-Sharia platform. He lost to Mark Hill, whose campaign slogan was “Unite Frisco.”
Turnout for the Frisco mayoral runoff was high. About a quarter of the city’s registered voters cast ballots according to city data, more than four times the number percent of voters who participated in another city runoff election earlier that year.
The support from their community was encouraging for South Asian and Muslim residents in Frisco, Parbhoo said.
“They voted against hate, and that told us that our neighbors were supporting us,” she said. “Their neighbors didn’t think that that was okay.”
Hill’s landslide victory after record voter turnout in the Frisco mayoral runoff may have foreshadowed the outcome of the November election in Collin County, Parbhoo said. About 58% of the county’s registered voters cast ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, the same percentage of voters who participated in the 2024 presidential election.
Path forward
Republicans in Collin County need to consider changing demographics in the region and what those voters are looking for, Cary said.
“Mindsets have changed,” he said. “But Republicans first have to be honest about what those changes are. We need to evolve to connect with those citizens.”
The GOP, Cary said, will find a way to reassert itself and improve its messaging and pave the way for an eventual comeback.
Republicans still have a great deal of power in Collin County. All but one of the county commissioners’ court members are Republican. Both of the county’s state senators are Republican, including state Sen. Angela Paxton.
Texas is still a conservative state. Assuming it’s now safely Democratic isn’t accurate, Simas said.
“Anyone that looks at this and thinks, okay, Texas is now blue and this is a democratic state and we’re over here now, that’s a mistake,” she said. “If anything, this is maybe starting our purple era.”
Texas will likely be a major battleground for campaigns in the 2028 presidential election. And former GOP strongholds in North Texas like Collin County could be the center of the fight for control of the state’s 40 votes in the electoral college.
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