Researchers at Colorado State University predict there will be 13 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season.
On Thursday, the Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software (TC-RAMS) team at CSU released its predictions for the 2026 hurricane season, which spans from June to November. The researchers predict there will be 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricane days.
"We anticipate that the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have somewhat below-normal activity," the researchers said on their website. "Current weak La Niña conditions are likely to transition to El Niño in the next few months, with the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season."
The TC-RAMS team, which makes hurricane predictions every year, also said it anticipates El Niño to be the "dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season."
La Niña and El Niño refer to oscillating global weather patterns, with La Niña translating to warmer, drier winters in Texas and the rest of the South.
The predictions by the TC-RAMS team are determined using 25-40 years of historical weather data and a new "machine learning-based" AI climate model called the "Ai2 Climate Emulator."
This year's hurricane season is expected to have about 75% of the activity compared to the average amount of activity from 1991-2020, according to researchers.
"So far, the 2026 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to the 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023 seasons," CSU senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach said via a statement. "While the average of our analog seasons is somewhat below normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook."
Three additional forecasts from CSU will be released throughout the year, on June 10, July 8 and Aug. 5.
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