A new poll shows Austin state Rep. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, in a statistical dead heat with both remaining Republican candidates in the race.
Public Policy Polling, which accurately forecast Talarico’s margin of victory over Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in last week’s Democratic primary, conducted the survey. The poll showed Talarico leading incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn by 1 percentage point in a hypothetical general election matchup and leading Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2 percentage points, in both cases within the poll's margin of error. The firm conducted the survey in the two days immediately following last week's primary elections.
Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, explained how the firm conducted the survey.
"Thirty percent of our respondents were Democrats, 41% were Republicans, and 30% were independents," Jensen said. "And we also asked people how they voted in the last presidential election. Fifty-four percent voted for Donald Trump, 40% voted for Kamala Harris, and 6% said that they sat it out. So, we had a Trump +14 sample, just like the results were in the state two years ago."
The polling firm conducted the survey on behalf of Senate Majority PAC, an organization dedicated to electing a Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate. Jensen said that such strong polling results by a Democratic candidate in Texas were surprising.
"There’s basically three conditions that you need for Democrats to have a chance in Texas," Jensen said. "One is that you need an unusually strong Democratic candidate, and I think James Talarico, with a +6 net favorability rating, might fit that bill. Another condition is that you need an unusually weak Republican candidate, and I think, with John Cornyn at -28 favorability and Ken Paxton at -24 favorability, that sort of fits that bill. And then the third thing you just need is a really strong political climate for Democrats in general. And I think that is something that we’ve seen across the country over the last year or so."
The poll comes as Texas Republicans wait for President Donald Trump to announce his endorsement in the GOP Senate contest. Trump posted on social media on Wednesday of last week that he intended to endorse one of the two remaining Republican candidates "soon," and that he expected the candidate he does not endorse to drop out of the contest and spare the Texas GOP a divisive May 26 runoff.
Political consultant Bill Miller said there's little recent precedent for Trump trying to name a winner in Texas' Republican Senate primary contest.
"If you want to know how the politics used to work back in the day, and I mean back when there were party bosses," Miller said, "if they decided they wanted Candidate A in the race and Candidate B out, that’s the way it came down. And what Trump is doing is he’s acting as a party boss used to act in American politics."
Miller said it's far from certain either Cornyn or Paxton would abide by such a decision from Trump. Paxton has said publicly that he intends to remain in the race, regardless of what Trump does, though he qualified that by saying he might consider dropping out if the Senate were to scrap the filibuster and pass the SAVE America Act, legislation that would require people to show proof of U.S. citizenship in order to register to vote. Trump has since said on social media that he will not sign any new legislation until the Senate passes the SAVE America Act.
Scrapping the filibuster, a move colloquially known as “the nuclear option,” would enable the Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act with a simple majority rather than a 60-vote supermajority. However, doing so would leave the GOP unable to block Democratic-sponsored legislation in the Senate if and when the Democrats regain control over that chamber.
Copyright 2026 Houston Public Media News 88.7