President Donald Trump will headline a Republican National Committee (RNC) fundraiser in Houston this Thursday, aimed at boosting state Attorney General Ken Paxton's bid for the U.S. Senate, according to a New York Times reporter. The visit to Houston comes as Trump is pledging to spend hundreds of millions of dollars to keep the Senate in Republican hands this November.
Most recent polling shows Paxton and and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in a statistical dead heat. The Cook Political Report recently rated the contest a “Toss Up,” the first time it has so rated a Texas contest for the U.S. Senate since the 2018 contest between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke.
Speaking Friday at Joint Base Andrews before a flight to South Carolina, Trump estimated that he and groups supporting him have already raised $850 million for the purpose of holding onto control of Congress. Federal Election Commission records say the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA, Inc. raised more than $400 million as of the end of July.
"And I'll be spending a lot of that money for, and my own money...for candidates that I think are good, Republican candidates that I think are good," Trump said. "So, when you add the $850 million to all of the other money that we've raised, we're in very good shape."
The Texas Senate contest between Paxton and Talarico could wind up absorbing much that of that campaign war chest.
"When we talk about projections from our side, [the] Texas Senate specifically, we have earmarked just about $440 million in total spending, said John Link, senior vice president of data at the political intelligence and analytical firm AdImpact. "That would make it the second-most expensive Senate race in history."
According to AdImpact's analysis, the Paxton and Talarico campaigns, together with outside groups supporting them, have already spent just under $200 million on advertising this campaign cycle. Since their respective primary cycles ended, Talarico has spent more than $23 million on general election advertising, compared to roughly $200,000 by Paxton and pro-Paxton groups.
The majority of Talarico's ad spending has come from funds raised by the candidate himself, while to date, much of Paxton's ad spending has come from outside groups supporting his campaign.
"Truth and Courage PAC [and] Preserve Texas — those are the two largest spenders by far right now on the Republican side. So, you do have that dichotomy of, right now, Paxton is really being supported by his PACs. Talarico is being supported directly from the campaign itself."
But Link said Paxton is likely to boost spending dramatically after Sept. 4. The Federal Communications Commission requires broadcast and cable to offer lower advertising costs to qualified campaigns within 60 days of a general election.
"What you have on Sept. 4 of this year is the opening of the political protected window," Link said. "So, I believe that you’ll start to see Paxton dollars flow right around early September and then probably pick up intensity as we get closer in."
In addition to the RNC fundraiser in Houston on Thursday, Trump will make a Friday visit to NASA's Johnson Space Center for a ceremony at which he will award Congressional Space Medals of Honor to the crew of the Artemis II mission.
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