This article originally appeared on Inside Climate News, a nonprofit, non-partisan news organization that covers climate, energy and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.
Texas’ electric grid operator expects to break power demand records during much of this week. But unlike some past summer swelters and high electricity demand forecasts, officials aren’t sweating it.
The spare capacity on the grid from large additions of solar and battery storage in recent years creates a healthy buffer between normal operating conditions and energy emergencies.
When the current all-time peak demand record of 85.5 gigawatts was set on Aug. 10, 2023, it stressed the grid and Texas narrowly avoided blackouts. But a lot has changed since then. Even as it expects to break that demand record, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) forecasts that the grid’s capacity will exceed demand by more than 30 gigawatts most days this week.
ERCOT is expecting moderately high to high demand this week, with peaks ranging from mid-80s to low-90 gigawatts. Trudi Webster, an ERCOT spokesperson, said the grid is operating under normal conditions, with operating reserves above 10 gigawatts.
The record-breaking electricity demand comes as triple-digit heat returns to Texas and a tropical storm develops in the Gulf, potentially impacting southeast Texas by Friday, according to reports from the National Weather Service. The storm is expected to land in Louisiana and weaken as it approaches Texas’ coast.
Solar provided between 35 percent and 45 percent of all electricity on Monday and Tuesday. It produced equal or slightly more energy than the gas-fired power plants which make up the largest share of ERCOT’s total power generation capacity.
In 2023, there were nearly 20 gigawatts of solar and 5 gigawatts of storage capacity in ERCOT, the grid operator reported. ERCOT projects that by the end of 2026, there will be more than 45 gigawatts of solar and 27 gigawatts of storage.
Three years ago, there was much nervousness about whether there was enough power to meet peak demand, said Michael Webber, an engineering and public affairs professor at the University of Texas at Austin. “We don’t have that same nervousness now,” he said.
Despite Texas’ population and economic growth since 2023, the state’s electricity use has yet to reach the 85.5 gigawatt peak again. It’s a sign not only of how exceptionally hot it was that summer, Webber said, but also how additional solar and battery capacity on the grid and flexibility from both generators and load have been handy tools for managing high peak demand.
“We’re in a much better situation today,” Webber said.
While there used to be concerns about meeting peak demand in the late afternoon into early evening, the growth of solar has nullified that worry and shifted the window when conditions could get tight. Instead, it’s now the three-hour gap each evening in summer once the sun has set, it’s still hot out and people are home and awake, beginning around 9 p.m., when the wind has yet to pick up again.
It’s when batteries and the fleet of fossil fuel power plants make a difference, Webber said.
Other developers across the country are struggling to get solar and battery storage built and connected to other grids due to a variety of regulatory and permitting reasons, Webber said. It’s given the rest of the major grids trouble during this summer’s heat waves.
As Texas developers have been able to build fast, it’s allowed for performance and climate benefits, too, Webber said. “Generally speaking, the clean stuff is the stuff you can build quickly,” Webber said.
Increased flexibility from all users of the grid has allowed ERCOT to avoid reaching peak demand, too. That includes industrial customers like data centers or manufacturers ramping down grid use during high power demand times or residential customers pre-filling their homes with cold air earlier in the day to avoid blasting the air conditioning in the late afternoon, Webber said.
The most critical moment expected to arise this week comes Wednesday night around 9 p.m., as demand is expected to exceed 84 gigawatts and capacity is forecasted to be nearly 98 gigawatts. One gigawatt services 250,000 residential customers during ERCOT’s peak hours, according to the grid operator.
Webster, the ERCOT spokesperson, said that the unofficial demand records reported throughout an operating day are preliminary and the overall system demand is later calculated with more accurate data. It’s not until months later that the numbers are set and become official, according to ERCOT.