A new study from the University of Houston reports sharp student losses, rising teacher turnover and an accelerated decline in experienced educators in Houston ISD since the start of the Texas Education Agency takeover.
The report's authors — Toni Templeton, Blake Heller, and Willa Friedman at the UH Institute for Education Policy Research and Evaluation — published Thursday that the state's intervention in the district coincided with significant shifts in both the district’s student population and in the teaching workforce.
Since the takeover of the district in 2023, the number of first-year teachers rose sharply by nearly 65%, while the number of more experienced teachers, those with at least two to five years in the classroom, rose by just 12.5%.
Additionally, the share of uncertified teachers spiked from under 1% in the 2016-2017 school year to nearly 20% in the 2024-2025 school year. At the same time, teachers with 16 or more years of classroom experience dwindled substantially.
"Right before the takeover, Houston ISD had about 100 uncertified teachers district-wide, and in the first year of the takeover, that number increased tenfold to a little over 1,000 district-wide, and in the second year of the takeover, that number doubled," Templeton said. "So, that increase is signaling to us that the district is really working with a much less certified and less experienced teaching population."
In 2025, the Texas legislature passed House Bill 2, which limits the number of uncertified teachers and gave districts until the fall of 2027 to remove uncertified teachers from leading any core classes in public schools.
"HISD is going to have to be more mindful of those requirements moving forward," Templeton said.
The report showed teachers choosing to leave Houston ISD for jobs in neighboring districts like Fort Bend ISD, Katy ISD, Cy-Fair ISD, or Spring Branch ISD.
"We saw an increase [as well] in those that left public school altogether, and then we also saw a slight increase in those that left teaching for a non-teaching role somewhere else," Templeton added.
Students, like teachers, are also opting to swap Houston ISD for a neighboring district, according to the report. Some students are choosing charter schools or leaving Texas public education entirely.
Enrollment was steadily declining prior to the takeover, but the decline increased in size and pace after the 2022-2023 school year. In November, an internal document shared with Houston Public Media showed the district's enrollment declined more significantly last year than district leaders anticipated. The district today has enrolled nearly 30,000 fewer students than it has the capacity to serve. Which can have economic impacts since student enrollment is tied directly to state funding of the district.
"More than 13,000 students have left HISD," Templeton said. "So, was there a trend of decline before the takeover? Yes. Has that trend been exacerbated by the takeover? We think those two things are coinciding."
In the 2016-2017 school year, data shows just 4.4% of students leaving the district, but just seven years later, the report shows the percentage nearly doubling to 8.1%. Enrollment declines might also be exacerbated by the new Texas private school voucher program, which passed into law last summer and which opens applications for families on Feb. 4.
"Yes Prep and KIPP charter schools are those that are taking a large majority of students since the takeover, along with Alief, Aldine and Fort Bend," Templeton said.
The steepest drop occurred at the high school level, particularly in ninth grade, where enrollment fell 15.1% in two years, according to the study.
"The data certainly suggests that students are not choosing to go to High School in Houston ISD and that's a trend that was very different prior to the takeover," Templeton said. "Prior to the takeover, HISD was experiencing enrollment declines, but we were seeing those mainly in the lower grades, and the high school had kind of stabilized.”
The report also found that campuses following the New Education System or NES, which have less autonomy and agency than non-NES schools, experienced the largest enrollment losses, and enrollment declines were significant in early grades.
Templeton said a departure spike was recorded right before first grade.
"[That] could suggest that they went to kindergarten, got a taste of what it was, and then chose to leave," she said.
The TEA announced the agency was taking over four more independent school districts in the fall. Templeton says it's important that other school districts take note of the enrollment drops Houston ISD is experiencing.
"This report certainly signals that the school district might need to brace for enrollment declines of a significant amount, and that's going to have an impact on the amount of dollars that are available to fund the takeover."
Houston ISD did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding the UH study.
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