CHANCES ARE

CHANCES ARE

MASTER TEACHER: Linda Wilson

GRADES 1-4

OVERVIEW
This lesson provides students with an understanding of probability.
Through class interaction, watching video segments and hands on activities,
students will develop an understanding of probability and the many ways
they use it in their daily lives. In the game of Chance, they will learn how
unfair some games can be to the players. In the Heads or Tails activity,
students will learn that some predictions do not follow a basic pattern.

ITV SERIES
Math Talk 10l "Take a Chance! Exploring Probability"

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
The students will:
* learn to make predictions and record data
* sort items by color and analyze data on a graph
* compare and contrast data collected
* construct a line graph from information obtained in the lesson.

MATERIALS
(for the teacher to use when demonstrating to the class)
1 yellow construction paper and 1 green sheet
1 scissor
1 spinner
1 token
2 pennies
1 place value chart
1 bag of M&M's or Skittles
1 graphing chart

(per pairs of students)
1 miniature bag of Skittles or M&M's candies
1 penny or double colored token
1 pair of scissors
1 napkin or paper towel
1 sheet of green construction paper
1 sheet of yellow construction paper
1 place value chart
1 sheet of graphing paper (1 cm squares)
1 box of crayons, map colors or markers and pencil to write with
1 activity sheet
1 sheet of paper

VOCABULARY
1. Probability - quality of fact of being likely or probable; chance
2. Token - an object used for some purpose other than money
3. chance - opportunity; possibility; probability or risk
4. Even Steven - A term used to mean fair or equal
5. Graph - line or diagram showing how one quantity depends on or
changes with another
6. Three-quarter - three out of four sections or parts
7. One-quarter - one out of four sections or parts
8. Predict - tell beforehand
9. Spinner - to turn or make turn rapidly

PREVIEWING ACTIVITY
Divide the students into pairs. Give each student a sheet of green
construction paper and a sheet of yellow construction paper. Have the
students trace a round object on each sheet of paper. Cut out both circles.
Fold the circles in four parts, unfold the circle and then cut out one of the
four sections. Now, have the students join the two colors at the "v" to form
a circle.

After the students have made the spinner out of the two colored circles,
allow them to experiment with it. Ask them questions about it such as,
What is it?, Why did they have to make it? What are they going to do with it?.....(accept all answers)

FOCUS FOR VIEWING
Say, "Today's lesson is on probability which means to take a chance on an
event about to happen. It's like making a prediction and seeing if it will come true." To give students a specific responsibility while viewing say, "We will watch a video on probability. Pay close attention to the GAME OF
CHANCE. We will be discussing it during the lesson."

VIEWING ACTIVITIES
Begin the video at the scene where the lady says, "Hello, I am Maria Lopez." Pause the video after Maria Lopez says, "Chill Buster." Say: "Do you know
what a spinner is?" (Show a spinner and then pass several around for the students to look at) Say: "Do you know what a token is? ( Wait for
response, then show token and pass several around). Resume the video.

Pause the video when the lady asks, "Excuse me sir is this game fair?" Say:
"Does the spinner on the tree look like the model you made?" (Hold up the colored circle and wait for responses) Say: " Make your spinner look like
the spinner in the game and tell me if you think the game is fair." (Discuss
the reasons: the green section is larger than the yellow. Green is the color
which will come up often.) Resume video.

Pause the video after the man says, " This game is Even Steven." Say:
"What does the term Even Steven mean?" Accept answers that come close
to meaning the same or half and half. (Have students model this with their colored circle) Resume the video.

Pause video after the boy shouts, "It is a rip off." Say: "Look at your
model again and make it look like the spinner in the video. Tell me why the
boy told the lady she was being ripped off." Wait for response, (The lady
would lose because the man had the green section. He had a greater chance
of winning due to the amount of green on the spinner. The game would be in
his favor.) Say: "By the way, what does being ripped off mean?" (To con
some one out of their money or property) Resume video to hear the boy's
reason to see if compared with answers given by the class.

Stop the Video. Say: "We have just seen one way people take chances on winning something. Let's view another method of using probability. Fast
Forward video until you get to the man talking to the talk show host. This
activity is on Heads or Tails. Resume the video.

Pause the video when the man asks, " What do you think the next toss will
be?" Say: "What do you think the toss will be?" (discuss predicted answers) Resume video to see the results and compare class answers to the video.
STOP and EJECT the video.

POST VIEWING ACTIVITY
We have learned that probability is the chance something will happen. We
start to predict that something will go one way or the other. Similar to what
we learned in the Head or Tails game you saw in the video. Some things
have a 50-50 chance of happening. In some cases the odds are stacked
against you. We learned this in the Game of Chance. In real life adults play
Lotto or buy scratch off games. The odds of winning are low but a few
people have been able to beat those odds. These are a few ways that we use probability in our daily lives. Just look around and I know you can find other ways.(weather forecasting, watching television, making a grade on a test,
saying who will win a game or event, etc.)

Now, it is your turn to do a little predicting of events. Lets see how much
you have learned about probability and taking chances. Pass out the following materials to each pairs of students: 1 bag of M&M's or skittles, a paper
towel, and the activity sheets to work on.

Say: "Do not open the bag of candy until after you have predicted: the
colors of the candies and the number of each color of candy in the bag.
Write your answers on the worksheet. Review the worksheet with the
students, check for understanding, then allow the students to complete the activity. Monitor and assist when needed.

After the students finish, have each group report their findings to the class.
Say:" How close were your predicted numbers to the actual numbers of M&M'S or Skittles of each color?" (Accept all answers) Say: "Did you
expect this result?" "Why or why not?"(Accept all answers) Finally have the students combine their results into a class chart and write a report on their
class findings.

PLAN OF ACTION
1. Invite a middle school teacher, high school teacher or college math
professor to come and talk to the students about probability.

2. Write different businesses and inquire how they use probability in their business. (Bingo, raffle, etc.)

3. Go the library and research the history of probability.

EXTENSIONS
Science - Bring a grapefruit, orange, lemon, lime, and apple to class. Divide
the students into groups and give each group a fruit. Before cutting the fruit,
have them predict the amount of seeds in their fruit. After they have made
their prediction and written the amount down, have the students cut the fruit
and count the amount of seeds. Record the results on their worksheet and discuss their findings. (Other fruits or vegetables could be used)
Have the students plant the seeds in a cup and make a prediction of which
seeds will sprout first. Record prediction. Place seeds in an area near a window. Chart results weekly.

Math - Have the students make a graph after calculating the class of the
M&M's or skittle activity totals by using a calculator.

Art - Have the students to create a design, mobile or collage with the results
of their prediction. They could depict their favorite color or colors.

Language Arts - Have the students write a short paragraph about the most interesting fact from completing the activity.

E-Mail - Have the students use the internet to locate information on
probability. Some areas are:
     http://archives.math.utk.edu
     http://www.enc.org/feform/journals/math.htm
     http://www.enc.org/classroom/lessons/docs/ENC2221/2221.htm

NAME:_______________________ DATE:_________________

Making Predictions with M&M's or Skittles

Materials:
1 small bag of M&M's plain candies or Skittles
1 paper towel

Steps:
1. Based on your previous experiences eating M&M's or Skittles, make predictions on the following:

Predict Actual

a. How many candies are in your package? ____ _____

b. What is the most common color? ____ _____

c. What is the least common color? ____ _____

2. Predict the colors of the candies in your bag and the number of each
color of candy.

3. Record this information in the chart on page 2 under "color" and
"Predicted of each color."

4. OPEN THE PACKAGE. Empty the contents of your bag of candies
on the paper towel provided. Observe and sort by color.

5. Total the number of candies in the bag. Record the actual number of
candies in the space provided in Number 1.

6. Total the number of candies of each color and record this information
in the chart on page 2 under "Actual Number."

page 2 - Predicting with M & M's plain candies or Skittles

COLOR PREDICTED NUMBER ACTUAL NUMBER
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________
TOTAL_________________________________________________

7. How close were your predicted numbers to the actual numbers of
M&M's or Skittles of each color? _______________________________________________________

8. Explain why you think your predicted number were different from the
actual numbers of M&M or Skittles of each color. _______________________________________________________ _______________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________

9. Do you think you would get the same results if you used a different
bag of M&M's or Skittles? How could you check? ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________

Biography

Linda Wilson was a classroom teacher for 20 years. She taught 7th, 4th and
3rd grade in Robstown, Texas at Hattie Martin Elementary until 1985. In 1985,she started teaching in Kingsville, Texas and taught 3rd, 4th, and 5th
grade at McRoberts Elementary until 1994. She is currently an Instructional Program Facilitator with Kinsville, ISD. She works at Harvey Elementary,
Perez Elementary and Central Administration. She coordinates the District Spelling Bee and UIL for grades 4-8. Linda received her a B.S., M.S.
degree and Mid-Management certification from Texas A&I University.

Updated: April 01, 2008